On Prognostication, Especially On The Future

On Prognosis, Especially About The Future

Not long ago I speculated that The United States would not survive Trump. But I have to admit I am struck by how much I have been surprised by the Trump Administration so far

First off, I am really surprised each morning I awake to a world not yet at war over North Korea’s missile program. My only solace has remained that we have not reached the end of the Trump administration. There may still be a war on The Trump Administration’s watch. Odd place to take solace in.

After all, most scenarios involving war against North Korea assume nuclear weapons used against the citizens of North Korea. But wars are notoriously unpredictable, and it is very likely that hundreds of thousands of people, most likely on both sides, would die. That might just be enough to drive a wedge between Trump and his supporters. Nothing short of it is apt to do so, though. Assuming Trump gets past the start of war in North Korea without losing his base, I think he will surge in popularity to very high percentages.

Perhaps we will be at war in twelve years, my expected expiration maximum. Perhaps Trump will have been assassinated. All we really know is that the current direction cannot continue without something having a blip. Perhaps there will even be two United States by then, one mostly of the north, the other mostly of the south. One thing appears clear: the white south has never accepted defeat by the north in the Civil War. Lincoln’s devotion to keeping the Union together has been defeated. That’s how it looks to me, anyway.

If we are at war in twelve years from now, I think Trump will still be at the reins of at least one of the remaining United States. Whether he is popular then will, I think, depend on whether the United States appears to be winning the war or not. The future of the world will, almost certainly, lie in the balance. Neither hope nor fantasy will save the planet from global warming, though. By twelve years from now everyone, Trump included, will agree that global warming is a phenomenon which has to be dealt with. Whether there will be any remaining possibility of dealing with it at that time, however, is totally unclear.

More than anything, this will probably drive the war. Science  is not a figment of the imaginations of a few pseudo-intellectuals. Global warming has been a certainty since the growth in atmospheric greenhouse gases was first detected by Charles Keeling back in the 1950’s. The likes of Trump and his minions will be powerless against it unless he wins the war and truly begins to address the problem. Ironically,Trump’s success may be our best hope. Only a united planet stands any chance of a successful response to a global threat like this.

If Trump has been assassinated by then, or has died a natural death, all bets are off, for no one else seems arrogant enough to meet the challenges which lie ahead.

As for me, I fully expect to be dead before the temperature on this planet has rendered it uninhabitable. But that is the direction in which it is headed, and that is the future your grandchildren will have to confront. Sorry, but that’s just how it is. I wish it were different, but it is not.

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4 Responses to On Prognostication, Especially On The Future

  1. Dallas Smith says:

    George, Strong prognoses…I don’t necessarily agree with the two state prognosis, but I think the climate prognosis is undeniable. Interesting question you raise, if Trump starts a war that kills hundreds of thousands or millions on both sides, would his loyalists finally see him for the destructive dangerous individual he clearly is?

  2. susan says:

    George, you may well be right. And, you may be wrong. None of us are fortune tellers and one event begets the next. Trump is the ever changing wiji board without limits and without rules. And, he is fascinating. Without question, Americans hate boredom. And, we are not bored. Still, anything could happen. The Nixon resign was a shock…and this time so many would have to leave. But,not yet. Dems have nothing solid to offer. So, we buy time. I love you. Probably all of us will be in air conditioned heaven looking down upon the hot air below us.

  3. Hank Raymond says:

    I wonder if a war would solve the problem of climate change. Fewer people and less infrastructure means less CO2 in the air.

  4. George says:

    I don’t see how a war would help avoid global warming. Most of the atmospheric carbon needed is already up there, and wars tend to involve more anyway. But “what, me worry”.

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