Only a fool would try to predict the world order that will come out of the era of the Arab Spring. But, being a bit foolish anyway, let me speculate.
First of all, I think it pretty unavoidable that the presidency of the United States will come out of this era as a much stronger office than it was prior to G W Bush. Obama, having been so disappointingly weak, has set the scene for the pendulum to swing.
It does not, and will not, require a genius to assess his weakness as being almost exclusively due to his inability to sway his opposition in Congress to a position that would allow him to see any of his initiatives implemented as he would have liked. For him, this started, and largely remains, with the Republican’s decision to prevent any initiative he proposed to come to debate in the Senate by exercising their ability to prevent such consideration by voting as a 40+ block, the new understanding of a filibuster.
I refer to this as the “tyranny of the minority”, and think it his first and most disastrous mistake. The time to thwart this tactic would have been during the first few months of his first term. Not addressing it may result in the complete retreat of the USA as a world leader.
When we can do nothing without intense backbiting, we can do nothing. The world has begun to realize this. Whether we will ever recover remains to be seen, but one step in that direction will very likely be the ascension of a very powerful president.
Whether this will correspond to a diminishment in the power of the Congress remains to be seen, but I think it inevitable. It may even result in the complete dissolution of this great experiment in government. I hope not, but it is in the realm of possibility.
In the meantime, we should see our national dominance retreat greatly.
In particular, it seems highly unlikely that the middle east or the Russian domain will be much like it currently is. Iraq now looks like it will emerge from the war started by Bush/Cheney, at best, as three countries. Kurdish, Sunni, and Shiite. How these will mesh with Syria and Turkey is anyone’s guess. Similarly, there no predicting the future of Afghanistan/Pakistan/Kashmir/
While the middle east is working itself out, Russia will almost certainly foster a similar disintegration of the Ukraine into at least two nations. It has already incorporated the Crimean Peninsula into itself.
Egypt seems unlikely to remain a single entity for long. Meanwhile, the rest of Africa and most of South America are ready to literally crumble before our eyes.
My advice: hold onto your globe until it all settles out. Then plan on trashing it.